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What are the odds?

genesisone

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Maybe there's a mathematician among us who can answer the question.

My youngest brother's first grandchild (a girl) was born this past Monday - Nov 21, 2016. My first grandchild (also a girl) was born exactly 16 years earlier on Nov 21, 2000. My brother's son was born on January 18, 1994. My son was born exactly 16 years earlier on Jan 18, 1978. In both cases, the grandchild is the child of our daughters. Our sons became uncles at exactly the same age.
 

Ainnir

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That's neat!  Congratulations to your brother and his family, too!
 

RaphaCam

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I really tried, but this is impossible, too many variables. What I got is:

  • It is fair to assume Canadians have a 15-year reproductive period for statistical purposes. On 1995, nearly 44% of Canadian fathers were in their thirties, while 36% were on their forties (so, since we're not trying to do anything very exact here, let's assume 7,2% of Canadian fathers had 40 to 41). So the median would be 12 years. Presuming people rarely have children if not between 16 and 70 and 40/12 = 3.3, let's fictionalise people have 15 years to have children.
  • In a scenario that both you and your brother already have children, the chance that both of them having children is 71%. I can't find any stats on how many Canadians die childless, but there's one saying there are 14,3 million singles out of 36,2 people as of 2016. There are about 10,4 million Canadians below 25 as of 2016, so let's use that as a marriage age, pretend all couples have children and ignore all people under 25 and married. It means there are roughly 4 million single Canadians to die childless out of 25,8 million. This means your son has an 84% chance of having a kid.
 

genesisone

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RaphaCam said:
I really tried, but this is impossible, too many variables. What I got is:

  • It is fair to assume Canadians have a 15-year reproductive period for statistical purposes. On 1995, nearly 44% of Canadian fathers were in their thirties, while 36% were on their forties (so, since we're not trying to do anything very exact here, let's assume 7,2% of Canadian fathers had 40 to 41). So the median would be 12 years. Presuming people rarely have children if not between 16 and 70 and 40/12 = 3.3, let's fictionalise people have 15 years to have children.
  • In a scenario that both you and your brother already have children, the chance that both of them having children is 71%. I can't find any stats on how many Canadians die childless, but there's one saying there are 14,3 million singles out of 36,2 people as of 2016. There are about 10,4 million Canadians below 25 as of 2016, so let's use that as a marriage age, pretend all couples have children and ignore all people under 25 and married. It means there are roughly 4 million single Canadians to die childless out of 25,8 million. This means your son has an 84% chance of having a kid.
There's always a new side to you!

I know that in a room of 23 random people there's a 50-50 chance that two will have the same birthday, and it increases to 99.9% in a group of 75.  I'm one of three brothers. I have two children (four grandchildren), next one has three children (one grandchild), the youngest has two children (and as of Monday one grandchild). So including us three brothers, our children, and grandchildren, we number only 16 people (there's that number 16 again!). So I wonder what it takes for two shared birthdays and each exactly the same interval in such a small group. It's probably easier to win a major lottery  ;).
 

mike

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My birthday is on Nov 19, my sisters - on May 30, and our parents wedding anniversary on July 15.

We had neighbours whose one daughter's birthday was on Nov 19, the other's - May 31, and their anniversary - July 15.
 
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